Article Summary
The list of articles below was last compiled by Bill Thompson in 2001 while he was a postdoctoral researcher at Colorado State University. We reprint it here with Bill’s permission including his original commentary. We are, of course, indebted to Bill for the use of this list, which undoubtedly took him many hours to compile.
Bill’s list contains 402 articles questioning the usefulness of the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm and spans nearly seven decades of research (the period from 1935 to 2001). Bill also compiled a smaller list of 36 articles that support NHST.
While Bill does not claim this list is comprehensive, it is nevertheless a strong indication of the caution one must use when engaging in NHST. This list is part of The Research’s larger project to document the many critiques of NHST and to apply those critiques in specific business contexts (ex. A/B web testing).
Note that Bill’s citation style is slightly more formal than that we have used elsewhere on this site. Also note that we are currently in the process of adding direct links to all 402 articles, although this will take some time.
Here’s Bill…
402 Articles/Books/Book Chapters Questioning the Indiscriminate Use of Null Hypothesis Significance Tests in Observational Studies
In 1997, I compiled a list of articles, books, and book chapters that questioned the widespread use of null hypothesis significance tests (a.k.a. null hypothesis tests, significance tests) in scientific research. My goal was to provide those unfamiliar with this debate with a list of citations that pointed out the myriad of problems associated with the indiscriminate use of null hypothesis tests. For parity, I also compiled a list of references that supported, at least to a limited extent, the use of null hypothesis tests.
Ironically, null hypothesis testing as it is currently practiced is a hybridization of R. A. Fisher’s significance test and J. Neyman and E. Pearson’s null hypothesis test (hence the label “null hypothesis significance test”). These two approaches were fundamentally different and were the source of heated debate between these two camps for many years (see Goodman 1993a for an excellent review of this historical debate). I sincerely doubt that the melding of these two approaches would have been acceptable to either Fisher or Neyman and Pearson.
Both the original list of 326 citations and the current one of 402 citations are strong evidence that null hypothesis testing has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of debate within a number of disciplines, especially the Social Sciences (see special features with pro/con articles on this topic in Morrison and Henkel 1970; Journal of Experimental Education 1993 [volume 61, no. 4]; Psychological Science 1997 [volume 8, no. 1]; Harlow et al. 1997; Behavioral and Brain Sciences 1998 [volume 21, no. 2]; and Research in the Schools [volume 5, no. 2]). Although in 1997 I noted a general lack of awareness of this debate within my own discipline of wildlife biology/ecology, there have recently been some rumblings here as well (e.g., see Cherry 1998, Johnson 1999, and Anderson et al. 2000). I was fortunate to be involved with co-chairing, with Dr. Chris Ribic, a symposium on the use/misuse of null hypothesis testing in wildlife science during the Fifth Annual Conference of The Wildlife Society in Buffalo, NY on 26 September, 1998 <link here: http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/bwg/symposia.htm>. This brought this important topic to the attention of many wildlife biologists for the first time, and ultimately lead to Dr. Doug Johnson’s 1999 invited paper, which won the Outstanding Article award from The Wildlife Society. Particularly noteworthy are the comments by the new editor of the Journal of Wildlife Management, Dr. Leonard Brennan, in the January 2001 issue (p. 172), in which he recommended that prospective authors “Focus on establishing a meaningful effect size” and “Avoid excessive use of P-values”. Drs. David Anderson, Ken Burnham, and Doug Johnson have been (and continue to be) important drivers for these changes within the wildlife field.
For those searching for an alternative to null hypothesis tests, I highly recommend reading about the information-theoretic (AIC) approach espoused by Burnham and Anderson (1998) (see also Anderson et al. 2000). I also strongly recommend Royall (1997), who suggests a likelihood ratio/strength of evidence approach in lieu of frequentist or Bayesian methods. Both information-theoretic and likelihood ratio/strength of evidence approaches fall under a general likelihood paradigm (the concept of likelihood also was developed by R. A. Fisher!).
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